Will Alex de Minaur qualify for Semifinals at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flavio Cobolli qualify for Final at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament
Cluster 2
Will Matteo Arnaldi qualify for Final at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament
Analysis
This probability estimates a 38% chance that Alex de Minaur reaches the semifinals of the 2026 French Open men's singles tournament. The market reflects de Minaur's ranking and recent clay-court form relative to competitors, with related contracts showing other top-ranked players like Felix Auger-Aliassime priced higher for the same milestone. De Minaur's path depends on draw positioning, injury status heading into the tournament, and performance in lead-up clay events through spring 2026. The tournament itself, scheduled for May-June 2026, will serve as the ultimate resolver of this outcome. Markets currently price his semifinal odds lower than Auger-Aliassime's (49¢), suggesting bookmakers view de Minaur as less favored in the overall draw despite both players typically seeding in similar ranges.
- ›De Minaur's historical performance on clay courts relative to his hard-court baseline strength and Grand Slam semifinal frequency
- ›Seeding and draw positioning at the 2026 French Open, which determines quarterfinal and semifinal matchups
- ›Injury or fitness concerns in the months preceding the tournament, particularly affecting his spring clay-court schedule
- ›Performance in ATP 1000 clay events and other lead-up tournaments from April-June 2026 as indicators of form
- ›Strength of the overall men's draw in 2026 and how many top-10 players populate de Minaur's potential path
What moved the line
- Jun 4Flavio Cobolli↑22pp39→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Matteo Arnaldi↑18pp11→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Flavio Cobolli↑14pp18→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Flavio Cobolli↑10pp61→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Flavio Cobolli↑8pp17→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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