Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Leader sits at 81% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0-10
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
10-20
Spread
72pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$41K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 20-40
0x09b4c4…76cf
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 10-20
0xaa9e78…11d7
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10
0x20ae35…15e1
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 40-60
0x8c6e7f…66a0
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing a 66% probability that the average daily number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0-10 by the end of May 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, typically seeing 20-30 vessels per day under normal conditions. The elevated probability of very low transit volumes reflects market expectations of significant disruption to shipping patterns. This could stem from geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, sanctions, or infrastructure damage affecting the region. With the resolution date imminent (May 31, 2026), actual vessel tracking data and shipping manifests will determine the outcome. Traders are heavily weighting the 0-10 range over the 20-40, 40-60, and 60+ categories, suggesting expectations of material disruption rather than normal operations. The relatively high probability also indicates limited confidence in resumed normal traffic flows within the remaining five days of the month.
- ›Official maritime traffic data (AIS/satellite tracking) showing actual daily average vessel counts from late May 2026 at resolution
- ›Status of shipping routes and port operations in the Strait region as of May 31, 2026, including any documented closures or restrictions
- ›Geopolitical or military developments that would materially restrict merchant vessel passage or create routing alternatives
- ›Insurance premiums and shipping company advisory notices for the Strait corridor, which reflect real-time risk assessment by industry participants
- ›Comparative baseline: historical average transit volumes (typically 20-30 ships/day) versus the market's implied expectation of sustained disruption
What moved the line
- May 2610-20↓5pp21→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 260-10↑3pp65→68¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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