Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as Deadlines Pass
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢. Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
Key takeaways
- 01
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢.
- 02
Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
- 03
The Iran prediction complex experienced its most volatile session in months.
Full analysis
The Iran prediction complex experienced its most volatile session in months. The polymarket contract “US x Iran permanent peace deal by... May 26” (0x421bc...) dropped 6¢ to 0¢ after the deadline expired without a deal, carrying over 4.4M in volume. That collapse spilled into subsequent deadlines: June 7 (0x366f8...) fell 3¢ to 37¢, and June 15 (0xd86a8...) fell 4¢ to 45¢. The most dramatic move came from the internet restoration market: “Internet Access restored in Iran by... May 31” (0x5b4be...) surged 42¢ to 67¢ on nearly 500k volume. This suggests either a government announcement or credible intelligence that Iran will restore connectivity before month’s end. For traders, the key contracts to watch are the June 15 peace deal (45¢, still moderate odds) and the June 30 deal (57¢). The regime fall market (0x789c9...) remains at 0¢ but with 2.1M volume, indicating sustained interest. If internet returns, that could precede broader diplomatic moves. Recommended action: open sf query “us iran peace deal” to monitor cascading deadlines.
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sf query "us iran permanent peace deal"