Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 by Jun 30
Leader sits at 97% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $3.87
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above $4.07
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$12K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
18 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.67 by Jun 30?: Above $6.67
KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.87 by Jun 30?: Above $6.87
KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.47 by Jun 30?: Above $6.47
KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.470
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.07 by Jun 30?: Above $6.07
KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.070
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.27 by Jun 30?: Above $4.27
KXB200Q-26JUN30-4.270
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.47 by Jun 30?: Above $5.47
KXB200Q-26JUN30-5.470
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.87 by Jun 30?: Above $5.87
KXB200Q-26JUN30-5.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.07 by Jun 30?: Above $5.07
KXB200Q-26JUN30-5.070
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.67 by Jun 30?: Above $5.67
KXB200Q-26JUN30-5.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.87 by Jun 30?: Above $4.87
KXB200Q-26JUN30-4.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.27 by Jun 30?: Above $5.27
KXB200Q-26JUN30-5.270
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.87 by Jun 30?: Above $3.87
KXB200Q-26JUN30-3.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 by Jun 30?: Above $4.07
KXB200Q-26JUN30-4.070
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.47 by Jun 30?: Above $4.47
KXB200Q-26JUN30-4.470
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.67 by Jun 30?: Above $3.67
KXB200Q-26JUN30-3.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.67 by Jun 30?: Above $4.67
KXB200Q-26JUN30-4.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.27 by Jun 30?: Above $6.27
KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.270
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Blackwell B200 GPU compute pricing will remain above $4.07 per hour through June 30th, 2026. The 97% probability on the next-tier price point ($3.27) versus lower probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.47 at 76%, $3.87 at 93%) suggests traders expect modest price stability or slight increases rather than sharp movement. Current pricing depends on supply-demand dynamics for enterprise AI compute, competition from alternative providers, and customer demand for B200 capacity. The main uncertainty centers on whether bulk pricing discounts or overcapacity will emerge before month-end, or conversely whether constrained supply sustains higher rates. The closest catalyst is observed pricing data from major cloud providers over the remaining month, which will either validate current estimates or force repricing if actual rates diverge materially from current thresholds.
- ›Current B200 hourly pricing across major providers relative to the $4.07 threshold, with observed rates determining resolution
- ›Enterprise demand trends for Blackwell compute through June, including whether adoption accelerates or plateaus
- ›Competitive pricing actions from alternative GPU providers that might pressure B200 rates downward
- ›Supply constraints or utilization rates that could support higher pricing if capacity remains limited
- ›Any announced pricing changes from major cloud platforms before June 30th deadline
What moved the line
- Jun 8Above $4.87↓63pp83→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 8Above $3.87↓57pp69→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Above $3.67↑56pp27→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Above $3.87↑44pp37→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Above $4.47↑42pp12→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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