Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
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single venue
24h move
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no pin
24h volume
$1.1M
1 contracts
Top contract
96¢
$1.1M · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?: June 30
0xdfd4d4…36a9
Analysis
This prediction assesses the likelihood that former President Trump will restart Project Freedom, a proposed initiative related to government reform and restructuring. At 96% probability, the market reflects strong expectations this will occur. The high probability is likely driven by Trump's 2024 campaign platform, which heavily emphasized government efficiency reforms, and his stated intention to implement similar policies if returned to office. Key factors that could shift this probability include Trump's actual policy priorities in the near term, any formal announcements or executive actions regarding government restructuring, and statements from Trump's advisors about implementation timelines. The resolution will primarily depend on whether Trump takes concrete steps—such as executive orders, budget proposals, or structural reorganizations—that align with Project Freedom's stated goals. Any significant pivot away from these priorities or competing policy demands could reduce the probability.
- ›Trump's official statements or announcements explicitly naming or endorsing Project Freedom as a priority
- ›Issuance of executive orders or policy directives directly related to government restructuring components
- ›Timeline for implementation—whether Trump allocates resources and personnel to such an initiative within his first year
- ›Competing policy priorities that could delay or supersede government reform efforts
- ›Congressional or legal obstacles that might prevent or materially alter the scope of any such program
What moved the line
- Jun 10June 30↑65pp12→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11June 30↑21pp77→98¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Director of National Intelligence before Sep 1, 2026last 96% · 1d
- What will Melania Trump say during 113th Annual First Lady’s Luncheonnolast 81% · 2d
- How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnellnolast 6% · 3d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Apr 24, 2026last 96% · 4d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026last 94% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
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Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action
The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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