CA-40 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 72% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ken Calvert
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
69¢
Young Kim
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-40 Primary Winners
CA-40 Primary Winners: Ken Calvert
0xc887e9…1aa3
CA-40 Primary Winners: Nina Linh
0xf1c38c…c83e
CA-40 Primary Winners: Lisa Ramirez
0xd1027b…e1d7
CA-40 Primary Winners: Joe Kerr
0xd13248…18b6
CA-40 Primary Winners: Esther Kim Varet
0xf3874f…9940
CA-40 Primary Winners: Young Kim
0x62deb9…0c92
Analysis
CA-40 is a Southern California congressional district where the primary winner is expected to be Ken Calvert with 76% probability, ahead of Young Kim at 72%. This represents the market's assessment of who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary. The high probability reflects Calvert's incumbent status and established donor network, though the close runner-up pricing indicates genuine uncertainty about whether challengers could consolidate support. Primary participation rates, late-breaking endorsements, and turnout patterns in specific precincts will likely determine the outcome. The primary election will resolve this market directly on the election date, at which point vote totals will establish the winner.
- ›Ken Calvert is the incumbent representative, typically providing structural advantages in candidate recognition and campaign infrastructure
- ›Young Kim's 72¢ price indicates meaningful market uncertainty despite trailing by 4 cents, suggesting competitive dynamics in polling or fundraising data
- ›Combined probability of Esther Kim Varet (37¢) and Joe Kerr (39¢) exceeds either individual frontrunner, indicating fragmentation among non-incumbent candidates
- ›Zero trading volume on top contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited new information or market activity, with positions potentially set ahead of the primary
- ›Lisa Ramirez's 4¢ price indicates minimal market confidence in a come-from-behind victory despite being a candidate on the ballot
What moved the line
- May 22Joe Kerr↑14pp18→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 28Joe Kerr↓12pp30→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Esther Kim Varet↑8pp44→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Joe Kerr↑8pp22→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Ken Calvert↓6pp76→70¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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