What will Melania Trump say during 113th Annual First Lady’s Luncheon
Leader sits at 81% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Education / College
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Bessent
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Donald
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-DONA
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-AI
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Stock Market
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-STOC
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Dell
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-DELL
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Education / College
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-EDUC
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Bessent
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-BESS
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: School
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-SCHO
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: Peace
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-PEAC
What will Melania Trump say during First Lady Melania Trump To Launch Fostering the Future Accounts?: America First
KXMELANIAMENTION-26JUN11-AMER
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Melania Trump will make a public statement or remarks during the 113th Annual First Lady's Luncheon, an event typically attended by sitting and former First Ladies. The current 10% probability reflects low confidence she will speak at this particular event. The main factors influencing this level include her historical participation patterns in formal First Lady events and the specific nature of this luncheon's format and speakers. The resolution will occur when the event takes place and its official record becomes publicly available, showing whether she attended and whether she delivered remarks. The relatively low probability may reflect either her infrequent public speaking at such events, uncertainty about her attendance, or the event's planned speaker lineup already being finalized without her participation announced.
- ›Melania Trump's historical participation rate in formal First Lady luncheons and similar charitable events over the past five years
- ›Whether the event organizers have publicly announced or implied her attendance and speaking role ahead of the scheduled date
- ›The typical format of the 113th Annual First Lady's Luncheon and whether it features remarks from multiple attendees or a predetermined speaker list
- ›Any recent public statements or scheduling information from Melania Trump's office confirming or denying her participation
- ›The contrast between this 10% probability and comparable events where former First Ladies make public remarks
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Director of National Intelligence before Sep 1, 2026last 96% · 1d
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...last 96% · 2d
- How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnellnolast 6% · 3d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Apr 24, 2026last 96% · 4d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026last 94% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
Related reading
Trump Pivots on Hormuz Blockade — Market Prices 63% Chance of Lift by June 30
The 'Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30' contract surged 32¢ to 63¢ in a single session, making it the single biggest mover across all Trump-linked markets. This repricing is the direct political consequence of the Iran diplomatic surge — traders now see a high likelihood that the administration will claim a diplomatic win by lifting the blockade in conjunction with a nuclear deal framework.
Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action
The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.