Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 4 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 28%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
2 contracts
Polymarket
28%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$92K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 26¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (26¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (28¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens” vs “Eastern Conference Finals Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
0x52847c…6fca
Cluster 2
Eastern Conference Finals Winner
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?: Montreal Canadiens
KXNHLEAST-26-MTL
Cluster 3
will real gdp increase by more than 2.5% in q2 2026
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
Cluster 4
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
0x9e8978…8ea8
Analysis
This represents the probability that Bamin Real Potosí will defeat CDT Real Oruro in an upcoming match. The 40% probability reflects a slight favoring of CDT Real Oruro, though the 8-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests some disagreement in market pricing. Key drivers of this probability include recent team form, head-to-head performance history, and current league standings. The match outcome will be determined by the final whistle on the scheduled game date, which will provide definitive resolution of this uncertainty. Bettors are pricing in factors such as home-field advantage if applicable, recent injuries or roster changes, and historical patterns in this regional Bolivian matchup.
- ›Recent match results and win-loss records for both teams in the current season
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between Bamin Real Potosí and CDT Real Oruro over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Current league standings and points differential that would affect playoff positioning or relegation implications
- ›Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international call-ups at time of match
- ›Home versus away venue designation and historical performance differential for each team in their respective stadiums
What moved the line
- May 6Montreal Canadiens↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Montreal Canadiens↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.