Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 4 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 28%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
2 contracts
Polymarket
28%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$92K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 26¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (26¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (28¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens” vs “Eastern Conference Finals Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
0x52847c…6fca
Cluster 2
Eastern Conference Finals Winner
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?: Montreal Canadiens
KXNHLEAST-26-MTL
Cluster 3
will real gdp increase by more than 2.5% in q2 2026
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
Cluster 4
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
0x9e8978…8ea8
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome in a matchup between Bamin Real Potosí and CDT Real Oruro. The 37% probability sits at a modest level, with modest disagreement between venues—Kalshi users price it 2 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants. The current pricing likely reflects available team information, historical performance data, and any relevant contextual factors about these teams' recent form. Key drivers of movement would include confirmed roster changes, injury reports, or updated performance metrics in the weeks leading up to the event. The main catalyst that would resolve uncertainty would be the scheduled match itself, which would definitively determine the outcome and collapse the probability to either 0% or 100%.
- ›Cross-venue probability gap of 2 percentage points suggests modest disagreement in market assessment
- ›Aggregate probability of 37% indicates this outcome is favored to not occur more often than occur
- ›Kalshi contracts average 39% while Polymarket averages 37%, indicating slight platform-level differences in information interpretation
- ›Current pricing incorporates available team statistics and recent performance data as of late April 2026
- ›Match outcome will be definitively resolved upon completion of the scheduled event, collapsing uncertainty
What moved the line
- May 6Montreal Canadiens↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Montreal Canadiens↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.