Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets: CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 4 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 28%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
2 contracts
Polymarket
28%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$92K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 26¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (26¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (28¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens” vs “Eastern Conference Finals Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
0x52847c…6fca
Cluster 2
Eastern Conference Finals Winner
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?: Montreal Canadiens
KXNHLEAST-26-MTL
Cluster 3
will real gdp increase by more than 2.5% in q2 2026
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
Cluster 4
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
0x9e8978…8ea8
Analysis
This market reflects a 40% probability that CDT Real Oruro will lose by more than 1.5 goals to Bamin Real Potosí in an upcoming Bolivian football match. The aggregated probability shows an 8-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing it slightly higher at 46% versus Polymarket at 38%, suggesting some disagreement about Oruro's likely margin of defeat. The probability would move based on team form, injury status, and head-to-head records leading into match day. Resolution depends entirely on the final score when the match concludes, which typically occurs within the standard football calendar window. Recent performance trends and home-field advantage for Potosí would be the primary drivers of significant probability shifts.
- ›Team form in recent matches: current winning percentage and goal differential for both squads in their last 5-10 games
- ›Head-to-head historical record: Potosí's performance against Oruro in prior encounters, particularly margin of victory patterns
- ›Home-field advantage: Potosí playing at altitude in Potosí versus Oruro's conditions and historical home/away splits
- ›Injury and roster availability: key player absences for either team that would significantly impact attacking or defensive capability
- ›Closing odds movement: direction and magnitude of probability shift in final 24-48 hours before match kickoff
What moved the line
- May 6Montreal Canadiens↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Montreal Canadiens↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.