How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year
Leader sits at 93% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 550
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 600
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
246 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 550
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-550
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 850
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-850
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 800
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-800
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 750
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-750
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 650
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-650
How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 600
KXBANKRUPTCY-26-600
Analysis
This market is assessing whether the U.S. will experience at least 550 corporate bankruptcies during 2026, with a 93% probability suggesting traders view this as highly likely. Corporate bankruptcy rates typically fluctuate with economic conditions, credit availability, and business sentiment. The current high probability reflects expectations of moderate-to-elevated distress levels, potentially influenced by recent interest rate environment, inflation trends, and sector-specific pressures. Resolution depends on actual bankruptcy filings tallied throughout 2026, with preliminary data typically available quarterly and final figures compiled by year-end. Key factors that could shift this probability include major changes in monetary policy, unexpected economic contraction or expansion, significant sector disruptions, or shifts in business credit conditions.
- ›Historical U.S. corporate bankruptcy rates typically range from 400-700 filings annually; current market pricing reflects confidence this threshold will be exceeded
- ›Federal Reserve policy trajectory and prevailing interest rates directly influence refinancing ability and default risk for leveraged firms
- ›Labor market health, measured by initial jobless claims and employment trends, serves as a leading indicator for broader economic stress and insolvency risk
- ›Specific sector vulnerabilities—such as commercial real estate, retail, or regional financial institutions—could accelerate bankruptcies if conditions deteriorate sharply
- ›Q2-Q4 2026 earnings reports and credit market stress indicators will provide concrete data points for market repricing as the year progresses
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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