Will DANDELION be #2 on the Billboard 200 during the week of May 9, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$263
2 contracts
Closes
May 11, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will DANDELION be #2 on the Billboard 200 during the week of May 16, 2026: DANDELION
Cluster 2
Will I'm The Problem be #2 on the Billboard 200 during the week of May 16, 2026: I'm The Problem
Analysis
This contract asks whether the song DANDELION will rank as the #2 album on the Billboard 200 chart for the week ending May 9, 2026. The 25% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about chart positioning one week away. Chart rankings depend primarily on weekly sales and streaming volume during the tracking period, with the final numbers released by Billboard on May 6. The main driver of current positioning is early-week sales momentum and playlist adoption; the contract resolves when Billboard publishes official chart data for that week. Competition from other new or incumbent releases significantly affects whether this track reaches the #2 spot versus finishing higher or lower on the chart.
- ›Billboard's official chart release on May 6, 2026 will provide definitive ranking data for the May 9 tracking week
- ›Current sales and streaming velocity in the first few days of the tracking week relative to competing releases
- ›Related Kalshi contract shows 'Dandelion by Ella Langley' at 19¢ for spending 4+ weeks at #1 in 2026, suggesting some confidence in the track's longevity
- ›Track performance depends on combined streaming volume and physical/digital sales during the May 2-8 tracking period
- ›Multiple competing contracts on the OCTANE positioning suggest fragmented market expectations and potential cannibalization effects
What moved the line
- May 6DANDELION↑57pp11→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 7DANDELION↓14pp68→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 8DANDELION↑11pp54→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.