BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026
Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?: Fort Trump
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-FORT
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that the BLAST Rivals Season 1 tournament occurs in Fort Worth, Texas in 2026. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite tournament organizers' stated intentions, with a 12-percentage-point gap between venues suggesting disagreement about venue confirmation risk. The primary drivers are venue logistics (cost, facility availability, scheduling conflicts with other esports events) and organizational capacity—BLAST must finalize contracts, secure licensing, and coordinate team travel. The main catalyst is the official tournament announcement and venue confirmation, typically occurring 2-4 months before the scheduled event. Current probability reflects that some scouts view Fort Worth as uncertain given typical esports venue changes and the time remaining for complications to emerge.
- ›Vitality is priced at 81¢ to win if the event occurs in Fort Worth, suggesting high confidence in their participation and performance conditional on venue confirmation
- ›The 12-point gap between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (21%) indicates disagreement on how to weight venue confirmation risk versus other uncertainties
- ›G2 is priced at only 7¢ on Polymarket to win Fort Worth, despite being at 38¢ on Kalshi for the broader season, suggesting market doubt about their Fort Worth participation specifically
- ›Trading volume on winner contracts ($8,673–$1,315 per day) shows sufficient liquidity to reveal genuine price discovery rather than illiquidity-driven extremes
- ›No publicly announced Fort Worth venue lock-in date or contract filing suggests the event remains contingent on unresolved logistics as of May 2026
What moved the line
- May 6Fort Trump↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Fort Trump↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.