Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Qatar
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
46 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Bosnia and Herzegovina will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The 33% median probability suggests bookmakers view Bosnia as the underdog, with Qatar favored despite Bosnia's recent competitive performances. The 6-percentage-point gap between venues indicates some disagreement about match dynamics, possibly reflecting different assessments of team form, injury status, or head-to-head records. The outcome depends on team composition, tactical setup, and match conditions on the day of play. Liquidity across contracts remains modest, suggesting limited trading activity and potential for probability shifts as the match date approaches and new information about team readiness emerges.
- ›Bosnia and Herzegovina's current FIFA ranking and recent match results against comparable opponents
- ›Qatar's home-field advantage status and performance record in competitive fixtures
- ›Injury reports or roster changes for either team in the weeks before the scheduled match
- ›Historical head-to-head results between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar
- ›Betting volume disparity between venues, indicating which market has stronger conviction in the pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.