Brazil vs. Haiti
Leader sits at 88% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Brazil
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Haiti
Spread
80pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$10K
liquid
Closes
Jun 20, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Brazil vs. Haiti
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations for Brazil to defeat Haiti in an upcoming match. The assessment sits between two major venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi, suggesting some disagreement about Brazil's chances despite their significant global ranking advantage. Brazil's performance history, squad depth, and home-field conditions typically favor them heavily against Haiti, yet the market hasn't priced this as a near-certain outcome. The key driver of movement would be team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical shifts—appearing closer to match day, along with any head-to-head historical patterns or recent form updates that alter baseline expectations.
- ›Brazil holds a substantial FIFA ranking advantage over Haiti, yet the market prices this outcome below 50%, indicating either perceived vulnerability in Brazil's current form or uncertainty about match conditions
- ›Polymarket contracts show 3 percentage points higher probability than Kalshi, with asymmetric trading volume concentrated on Brazil-Morocco outcomes rather than direct Haiti engagement
- ›Haiti's implied win probability of 28% on Morocco-Haiti markets suggests some heterogeneity in how the team is being priced across different matchup structures
- ›Top trading volume concentrates on the Brazil-Morocco contract ($261 24h), not Haiti-Brazil directly, meaning Haiti pricing may reflect derivative inference rather than direct institutional attention
- ›The absence of volume on certain Haiti contracts ($0 24h) indicates thin liquidity and potential for repricing if new information surfaces about team availability or conditions
What moved the line
- May 6Brazil↑3pp88→91¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.