Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader sits at 51% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
16th Place (Relegation Survi
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$37
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Heidenheim
0xa8ce9f…32b8
Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli
0x8e5f21…ce59
Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): VfL Wolfsburg
0xf6e1e6…6680
Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln
0x21bc7d…d33b
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that a Bundesliga club will finish 16th and secure survival through relegation playoffs rather than drop directly to the second division. The current estimate is shaped by how far into the 2025-26 season we are and which teams remain mathematically competitive for that playoff spot. Bundesliga teams finishing 16th play a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from the second division. The probability will shift based on mid-table clubs' remaining fixture difficulty, current point totals relative to safe positions, and injury status of key players. The main driver of movement will be final match results in May 2026, when the Bundesliga season concludes and the 16th-place finisher is mathematically determined. Markets for individual teams like Köln (44¢) and Hamburger SV (9¢) suggest significant dispersion in which specific club finishes 16th, but consensus remains that one team will occupy that spot rather than multiple teams being relegated outright.
- ›Current point differential between 16th and 17th place determines whether a team is mathematically safe for playoffs or faces direct relegation
- ›Remaining fixtures for mid-table clubs and their opponent difficulty ratings affect probability of a team accumulating enough points to reach 16th
- ›Historical Bundesliga playoff conversion rates show how often 16th-place finishers actually survive the two-legged playoff against second division third-place teams
- ›Injury reports and suspensions for key mid-table players in April and May 2026 impact performance in decisive final matches
- ›May 2026 match results are the primary resolution event, as final league standings determine which team finishes exactly 16th
What moved the line
- May 616th Place (Relegation Survivor): VfL Wolfsburg↑12pp26→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 316th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli↓11pp45→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 616th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln↓11pp44→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 816th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln↓8pp33→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 616th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli↑7pp34→41¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.