Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Leader sits at 95% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Heidenheim
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
St. Pauli
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$182
thin orderbook
Closes
May 28, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Analysis
This 24% probability represents the market's assessment that at least one Bundesliga club will be relegated from the top division at the end of the 2025-26 season. Relegation is determined by final league position, with the bottom three clubs dropping to the second tier. The probability reflects uncertainty about which teams will finish in the danger zone, typically influenced by current league standings, fixture difficulty, and team form. The main resolution point is the final match day of the Bundesliga season, currently scheduled for May 2026. Key drivers of this probability include the competitive strength of mid-table clubs competing to avoid the drop zone and the performance consistency of historically strong teams that might face unexpected struggles.
- ›Current league standings show which clubs are in and near relegation positions as of May 2026
- ›Recent win-loss records and goal differential trends of bottom-half teams indicate momentum and relegation risk
- ›Remaining fixture schedules and strength of opponents for struggling teams affect their probability of collecting enough points to escape
- ›Team composition changes through January transfer windows can significantly impact relegation candidates' competitive strength
- ›Historical performance data shows variance in which clubs drop to second tier year-over-year, reflecting league competitiveness
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.