Cannes Award for Palme d’Or

30-day trend

Analysis

The 18% probability indicates a roughly one-in-five chance that "Hope" wins the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. This probability reflects trader assessments based on the film's perceived artistic merit, festival buzz, and competition from other entries. The relatively modest probability suggests traders view it as a competitive but not frontrunning candidate. The level would move higher if early festival screenings generate critical acclaim or lower if competing films gain momentum. The key catalyst is the festival's screening schedule and jury deliberations, which typically occur in mid-May at Cannes. The 18% leader price significantly exceeds the next runner-up at 11%, indicating some concentration of belief, though the remaining contracts suggest considerable uncertainty about the ultimate winner across the full slate of nominees.

• ›'Hope' is priced as the leader among Palme d'Or candidates but commands less than one-fifth of implied probability, indicating no frontrunner consensus
• ›The contract shows $197 in 24-hour volume, substantially higher than competing films, suggesting active trader interest and potential new information flow
• ›The 2026 Cannes Film Festival judging occurs in May, creating a near-term resolution event that will determine whether this probability was calibrated accurately or requires repricing
• ›Multiple Palme d'Or contracts exist at varying prices (18%, 4%, and others), reflecting genuine uncertainty about which film will be selected by the jury
• ›Kalshi's six bound contracts on this category suggest traders view this as a relatively open competition rather than a heavily favored winner

What moved the line

• May 7Coward↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
• May 7All of Sudden↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds