New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cory Booker
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Gregory Tomaini
Spread
94pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
This 97% probability indicates market participants assess one specific candidate as heavily favored to win the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary. The high concentration reflects either strong polling data, significant fundraising advantages, or establishment endorsements backing the frontrunner. Conversely, a 3% probability on the alternative suggests limited confidence in challenger viability, though primary dynamics can shift with late-stage endorsements, debate performance, or unexpected campaign developments. The resolution will occur on New Jersey's primary election date, when voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for the general election. Market confidence at this level typically reflects available polling and candidate positioning weeks before voting.
- ›Primary election date and voter turnout patterns in New Jersey Democratic electorate
- ›Relative fundraising and cash-on-hand figures between frontrunner and challenger(s)
- ›Public polling data released in the final weeks before the primary
- ›Endorsements from New Jersey political figures, unions, and Democratic establishment organizations
- ›Campaign spending and advertising intensity in the final period before voting
What moved the line
- May 2Cory Booker↑6pp92→98¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Cory Booker↓3pp98→95¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Cory Booker↑3pp95→98¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.