IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Lindsay James
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Kathy Dolter
Spread
90pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Iowa 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. The current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with no clear frontrunner establishing dominant support. Primary election outcomes depend on voter turnout, candidate name recognition in the district, endorsements from local and state party figures, and campaign spending relative to competitors. The primary election date will resolve this contract—once ballots are cast and votes counted, the outcome becomes certain. Analysts tracking this race would monitor candidate fundraising reports, polling data if available, and endorsement announcements from influential local Democrats to assess whether the favorite maintains support or if challengers gain ground heading into election day.
- ›Iowa 2nd District voter composition and historical Democratic performance in general elections versus primaries
- ›Campaign funding levels and advertising spending by competing candidates in the district
- ›Endorsements from state party leadership, current officeholders, and local organizations representing key voter blocs
- ›Turnout expectations for the primary election and whether first-time or occasional primary voters participate
- ›Any recent polling data showing candidate name recognition and preference shifts among likely Democratic primary voters
What moved the line
- May 3Kathy Dolter↑3pp3→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kathy Dolter↓3pp6→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Lindsay James↑3pp90→93¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.