IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Lindsay James
IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Lindsay James
0x61dec1…3674
Analysis
This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Iowa 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. The current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with no clear frontrunner establishing dominant support. Primary election outcomes depend on voter turnout, candidate name recognition in the district, endorsements from local and state party figures, and campaign spending relative to competitors. The primary election date will resolve this contract—once ballots are cast and votes counted, the outcome becomes certain. Analysts tracking this race would monitor candidate fundraising reports, polling data if available, and endorsement announcements from influential local Democrats to assess whether the favorite maintains support or if challengers gain ground heading into election day.
- ›Iowa 2nd District voter composition and historical Democratic performance in general elections versus primaries
- ›Campaign funding levels and advertising spending by competing candidates in the district
- ›Endorsements from state party leadership, current officeholders, and local organizations representing key voter blocs
- ›Turnout expectations for the primary election and whether first-time or occasional primary voters participate
- ›Any recent polling data showing candidate name recognition and preference shifts among likely Democratic primary voters
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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