Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin
Leader sits at 45% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Economy
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Election
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin?: Election
KXTRUMPTOPIC-26JUN05-ELEC
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin?: Immigration
KXTRUMPTOPIC-26JUN05-IMMI
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin?: Economy
KXTRUMPTOPIC-26JUN05-ECON
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin?: Iran
KXTRUMPTOPIC-26JUN05-IRAN
Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin?: Event does not qualify
KXTRUMPTOPIC-26JUN05-NQE
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that "Economy" will be the most frequently mentioned topic during a Trump roundtable event scheduled in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. Currently priced at 4%, the Economy outcome leads a competitive five-way race where all alternatives cluster within 1 percentage point of each other, suggesting genuine uncertainty about which subject will dominate Trump's remarks. The low concentration reflects that this type of event has unpredictable discourse patterns—Trump may emphasize different themes depending on recent news cycles, local economic conditions, or questions posed by attendees. Resolution depends on the actual roundtable discussion, where topic frequency will be determined by reviewing remarks and statements. Factors that could shift probabilities include pre-event news developments, economic data releases before the event, or Trump's stated priorities in the weeks leading up to the gathering.
- ›The narrow spread across all five contract outcomes (4-5¢) indicates markets assign substantial probability mass across Economy, Election, Fraud, Healthcare, and Iran rather than concentrating on a single dominant topic
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests limited recent activity and potential illiquidity, making current prices potentially sticky and slow to update with new information
- ›Trump's discourse patterns at similar roundtable events typically span multiple policy areas, making prediction of the single most-mentioned topic inherently uncertain without knowing specific agenda or triggering events
- ›Recent macroeconomic conditions, inflation data, or financial market movements immediately before the event could increase salience of Economy as a discussion topic
- ›The geographical location (Wisconsin, a swing state) and roundtable format may influence whether political topics like Election and Fraud gain emphasis relative to policy domains
What moved the line
- Jun 3Economy↑34pp24→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Election↑26pp3→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Economy↓12pp58→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Iran↓12pp18→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Iran↑11pp8→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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