CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CD Tolima
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nac
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: CD Tolima
0x2cb1e2…b22d
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Club Nacional de Football
0x357ee8…4f9b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football)
0x804662…2239
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market expectations for CD Tolima to win an upcoming match against Club Nacional de Football. The aggregated estimate masks a notable 14-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing the outcome higher (44%) than Polymarket participants (30%), suggesting different confidence levels or information sets. The probability could shift based on team form, injury status, head-to-head history, and whether either squad has momentum from recent fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and official result. The relatively modest liquidity across related contracts indicates moderate trader interest, which could amplify price moves if significant news emerges about either team's composition or circumstances.
- ›14-percentage-point divergence between Kalshi (44%) and Polymarket (30%) indicates disagreement on fundamental match outcome probability
- ›Aggregated probability of 32% implies market assigns Club Nacional de Football approximately 68% win probability or draw possibility, positioning Tolima as the underdog
- ›Low contract volumes ($74 24h volume on top contracts) suggest limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or trader activity
- ›No disclosed team news, injuries, or recent form data is reflected in the published probability, creating potential for revision once match context emerges
- ›Match resolution date and venue conditions (altitude, weather, home-field advantage) would materially affect probability accuracy
What moved the line
- May 7CD Tolima↑21pp45→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Club Nacional de Football↓13pp26→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football)↓9pp30→21¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.