CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
Leader sits at 67% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$618
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdd5582…a4ed
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xcc83d1…c4a4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbb6532…9186
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
0xa229d8…a31e
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
Analysis
This 33% probability reflects market expectations that Club Nacional de Football will win or draw against CD Tolima in an upcoming Copa Libertadores match. The current odds suggest CD Tolima is favored, with contracts pricing the Colombian side at 45 cents. The probability is shaped by team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and recent injury status. Resolution depends on the match outcome scheduled for early May 2026. With zero 24-hour volume across most contracts, liquidity remains minimal, meaning quoted prices may not reflect true conviction from active traders. The spread between CD Tolima (45¢) and Nacional (26¢) with draw probability unpriced separately suggests moderate confidence in a Tolima victory rather than overwhelming certainty.
- ›CD Tolima's home-field advantage at El Murillo (Ibagué) and recent domestic league form
- ›Club Nacional's away-match performance record and squad availability heading into the fixture
- ›Historical head-to-head results between the two sides in continental competition
- ›Market concentration risk: zero 24-hour volume indicates low liquidity and potentially stale pricing
- ›Match scheduling and exact date confirmation, as Copa Libertadores fixtures can shift due to security or weather concerns
What moved the line
- May 7CD Tolima (-2.5)↑20pp6→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Tolima (-2.5)↓17pp23→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)↓16pp24→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CD Tolima (-1.5)↑15pp20→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Tolima (-1.5)↓13pp33→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.