SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Ceará SC vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 45¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

20pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 67% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 67% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 46% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 46% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 38% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 38% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.567¢Both Teams to Score46¢O/U 2.538¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 45% probability indicates that traders currently assess a moderate-to-better-than-even likelihood that both Ceará SC and AC Goianiense will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits as the leading contract despite minimal recent trading volume across all three related markets. The probability reflects general expectations about offensive output from both sides, though sparse liquidity suggests limited conviction among traders. Factors like team form, defensive vulnerabilities, and recent head-to-head scoring patterns would typically influence such assessments. Without recent trading activity or clear market signals, the 45% represents a relatively static snapshot rather than dynamic price discovery. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and actual goal distribution becomes known.

  • Both Teams to Score contract trades at 45¢ while alternative outcomes (Ceará -2.5 at 15¢ and Ceará -1.5 at 23¢) sum to 38¢, indicating asymmetric market expectations
  • Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests low market engagement and potentially stale pricing
  • The 45% probability reflects traders believe both teams are more likely to score than not, but the gap from 50% indicates skepticism about balanced offensive threat
  • Ceará SC (-1.5) contract pricing at 23¢ implies roughly 23% probability of a two-goal Ceará victory, constraining how high both-teams-to-score can realistically reach
  • Match outcome depends on specific team lineups, recent injury status, and whether either side prioritizes defensive setup over attacking intensity

What moved the line

  • May 7Ceará SC (-2.5)5pp1712¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7AC Goianiense (-2.5)3pp118¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7AC Goianiense (-1.5)3pp1310¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.