Charlton Athletic FC vs. Ipswich Town FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30
1 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ipswich Town be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season
Will Ipswich Town be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season?: Ipswich Town
KXEFLPROMO-26-IPS
Analysis
This 87% probability reflects market expectations that Ipswich Town will achieve promotion from the EFL Championship during the 2025-26 season. The high confidence reflects Ipswich's competitive position and squad strength relative to other Championship clubs. The probability could shift based on their remaining fixtures, injury status of key players, and performance in head-to-head matchups against other promotion contenders. The season concludes in May 2026, which will definitively resolve whether Ipswich finishes in the top two automatic promotion places or the playoff positions. Between now and season end, critical matches against direct rivals and their points accumulation trajectory will be the primary data points affecting market pricing.
- ›Ipswich's current league position and points total relative to the automatic promotion threshold and playoff positions as of early May 2026
- ›Performance in remaining fixtures against fellow promotion contenders and teams near the relegation zone
- ›Availability and form of key squad players, particularly any significant injuries affecting their starting lineup
- ›Head-to-head results in Championship matches directly against other clubs competing for promotion spots
- ›The mathematical path to promotion: whether 87% pricing aligns with their points needed versus realistic scenarios in remaining matches
What moved the line
- May 2Ipswich Town↑13pp71→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 d ago.