Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 69% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x326ee5…214b
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x07f191…7772
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Henan FC (-1.5)
0xd9d720…ab4c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xda368d…516c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x0bd1b6…c7f3
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Henan FC (-2.5)
0xd8a866…979b
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)
0x264488…7bf2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)
0x7b11ba…e46e
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market estimates that Chongqing Tonglianglong FC will win their Chinese Super League match against Henan FC. The probability sits in the lower-third range, suggesting bookmakers and traders view Henan as the slight favorite or expect a draw as the more likely outcome. Movement in this probability would depend on team form leading into the match—injuries to key players, recent performance streaks, or changes in head-to-head records could shift expectations. The match resolution itself will determine the outcome, though the exact date is not specified in available data. Liquidity across venues is moderate but concentrated, with most trading activity on Polymarket's direct head-to-head contract versus the broader "More Markets" pool.
- ›Chongqing's recent win-loss-draw record compared to Henan's form in the current season
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these two clubs in Chinese Super League play
- ›Injury reports or roster changes for either squad in the days before the match
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket probability divergence of 1 percentage point suggests minimal disagreement between major venues
- ›Total contract volume of $327–$287 across top venues indicates moderate but not exceptional market interest in this fixture
What moved the line
- May 3Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)↑16pp14→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Henan FC (-1.5)↑5pp15→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 4.5↓4pp24→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Henan FC (-1.5)↓4pp19→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 3.5↓3pp27→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.