Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner
Leader sits at 46% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keyd Stars Academy
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
paiN Gaming Academy
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$171
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: 7REX
0x26ed22…7135
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: paiN Gaming Academy
0x104eeb…51d7
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: INTZ
0xe0bedb…d7b8
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: KaBuM! IDL
0x33b0fa…6cb6
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: Estral Esports
0xaf40ef…d194
Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: Keyd Stars Academy
0x85a267…4da0
Analysis
This represents the aggregated probability that KaBuM! IDL will win the 2026 Split 1 championship in Circuito Desafiante, Brazil's secondary League of Legends league. The 30% probability reflects moderate confidence in KaBuM!'s competitive standing, though uncertainty remains substantial given the split is underway and multiple teams remain viable contenders. The current assessment likely depends on KaBuM!'s recent match performance, roster stability, and historical performance within Circuito Desafiante relative to competitors. The main catalyst for probability movement will be KaBuM!'s performance in remaining regular season matches and playoff advancement, with the split's conclusion in approximately June 2026 serving as the resolution event. Market depth appears limited, with only $60 in 24-hour volume on the KaBuM! contract, suggesting thin liquidity relative to CBLOL division markets.
- ›KaBuM!'s current win-loss record and recent match outcomes in Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1
- ›Roster composition and player performance metrics compared to other split contenders
- ›Historical performance of KaBuM! IDL in Circuito Desafiante tournaments and their typical competitive tier
- ›Market liquidity and trading volume on this contract ($60/24h) versus related LoL markets, indicating confidence or uncertainty among traders
- ›Playoff bracket structure and remaining schedule—how KaBuM!'s path to finals compares to competitors' paths
What moved the line
- May 6paiN Gaming Academy↓35pp36→1¢ · Polymarket
- May 6KaBuM! IDL↓24pp64→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Estral Esports↓20pp35→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 6INTZ↓19pp39→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2paiN Gaming Academy↓8pp45→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.