Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali
Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
América de Cali
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (Club Alianza Atlético
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$364
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: América de Cali
0x434862…9046
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Club Alianza Atlético
0xe3443c…fce3
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali)
0x3adc15…5289
Analysis
This 25% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for Club Alianza Atlético's performance against América de Cali, a match in South American football. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues suggests different assessments of team form, head-to-head history, or injury status. Markets pricing this outcome rely on recent performance data, home-field advantage, and roster composition. The primary driver of probability changes would be confirmed lineup announcements or injury reports released before match day. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, typically determining whether the specified outcome occurred. Polymarket's higher pricing may reflect different weighting of recent form or betting patterns within that user base.
- ›Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both clubs in their respective leagues leading into the fixture
- ›Home-field advantage status and historical head-to-head results between the two teams
- ›Confirmed absences or returns of key players through official team announcements or injury reports
- ›Venue conditions and travel factors that could affect team performance
- ›Volume and pricing consistency across the 13 Polymarket and 7 Kalshi contracts, indicating confidence or uncertainty in the estimate
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali)↓3pp30→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.