Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets

30-day trend

Analysis

This 28% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome in an upcoming Club Independiente Petrolero versus Caracas FC match. The related contracts suggest relatively low scoring is priced in, with over 1.5 goals trading at 76 cents while over 2.5 goals sits at 50 cents, indicating uncertainty between low-scoring and moderate-scoring scenarios. The extremely low volume across all contracts ($0 24h) and thin pricing on directional spreads—particularly Petrolero at -2.5 (12 cents)—suggest limited market participation and potentially outdated odds. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, though without a specified date in available data, the timing remains unclear. Factors like recent team form, head-to-head history, and injury status would typically influence how these probabilities reallocate as match day approaches.

• ›All contracts show zero 24-hour trading volume, indicating minimal recent market activity and potentially stale price discovery
• ›Over 1.5 goals is priced significantly higher (76%) than over 2.5 goals (50%), suggesting markets expect a low-to-moderate scoring outcome rather than a high-scoring match
• ›Club Independiente Petrolero spread at 12 cents versus Caracas FC at 20 cents indicates very little confidence in either team winning decisively
• ›Both teams to score contract at 55% reflects genuine uncertainty about whether both offenses will find the net
• ›The disparity between different goal-total markets suggests potential arbitrage opportunities if match conditions or team news changes materially

What moved the line

• May 6Caracas FC (-1.5)↓28pp28→0¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)↓21pp21→0¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Caracas FC (-2.5)↓21pp21→0¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Caracas FC (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

• What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
• FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds