Clube do Remo vs. SE Palmeiras
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
SE Palmeiras
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (Clube do Remo vs. SE P
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$356
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Clube do Remo vs. SE Palmeiras
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a match between Clube do Remo and SE Palmeiras will end in a draw at 25%, with a Clube do Remo victory priced at 21%. The draw outcome is currently the most-favored result. Factors influencing these prices include the relative strength of both teams, their recent form, and historical head-to-head performance. The match itself will be the primary catalyst that resolves this market, determining whether the draw odds were justified or whether one side outperformed expectations. Lower trading volume on the draw contract suggests limited recent price movement or conviction in either direction.
- ›Draw is priced as most likely outcome (25¢) despite draw markets often attracting less liquidity than winner markets
- ›Clube do Remo win probability (21¢) sits close to but notably below the draw, indicating modest confidence in either team to secure three points
- ›The $52 24-hour volume on Clube do Remo contract versus $0 on draw contract shows trading activity concentrated on one side
- ›Historical matchup records, current league standings, and recent form of both teams would materially affect draw probability
- ›Match kickoff time and date remain key unknowns that could influence final price before contract settlement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.