Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Clube Náutico Capibaribe
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Clube Náutico Capibari
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$15
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: Clube Náutico Capibaribe
0x7df95f…db5b
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: América FC
0x4534ab…5aed
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: Draw (Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC)
0x84a3e4…1826
Analysis
This represents the aggregate probability that Clube Náutico Capibaribe will defeat América FC based on predictions from market participants. Clube Náutico Capibaribe is currently priced at 49%, indicating the market views the match as competitive but favoring the first team. The probability reflects assessments of both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and any available team information as of early May 2026. A draw is priced at 28%, while an América FC victory is at 24%. The match outcome itself will resolve this market, with the probability likely shifting based on any team news, injury reports, or tactical updates released closer to kickoff. Extreme shifts would signal new information entering the market that substantially changes expectations about either team's performance.
- ›Clube Náutico Capibaribe holds a 49% win probability versus 24% for América FC, a 2:1 ratio suggesting meaningful but not overwhelming favorability
- ›The draw outcome is priced at 28%, indicating participants assess a meaningful chance of a tied result rather than a decisive victory
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests limited recent market activity, making the current prices potentially less responsive to very recent developments
- ›The three-contract structure forces all uncertainty into these three mutually exclusive outcomes; shifts between contracts reveal changing assessments of match likelihood rather than new external information
- ›Clube Náutico Capibaribe's lead over the runner-up (draw) is 21 percentage points, indicating moderate separation in market confidence rather than consensus
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.