Will Aaron Boone be out before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 13% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Out before Nov 15, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Out before Mar 24, 2027
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 24, 2027
319 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Boone be out before
Analysis
This contract represents the probability that Aaron Boone will be fired or resign as New York Yankees manager before September 1, 2026. At 12%, the market assigns this outcome low odds, reflecting Boone's established position with the organization and typical managerial tenure. The probability is primarily driven by the Yankees' regular-season performance through mid-August, as a significant collapse or unprecedented dysfunction could trigger front-office action. There's a notable 19-percentage-point gap between venues, with Polymarket pricing the scenario at 30% versus Kalshi's 11%, suggesting disagreement over either Boone's job security or the organization's tolerance for underperformance. The main catalyst would be the team's win-loss record and playoff positioning by late August, which would determine whether ownership considers managerial change necessary.
- ›Yankees' winning percentage and playoff positioning as of August 2026, compared to historical standards for managerial dismissal mid-season
- ›Presence or absence of publicly reported front-office disputes, player conflicts, or media narratives questioning Boone's authority or competence
- ›Boone's contract terms and any buyout provisions that would affect owner willingness to make an in-season managerial change
- ›Comparison to recent precedent: when other established MLB managers were removed mid-season and what circumstances triggered those decisions
- ›Kalshi vs. Polymarket pricing discrepancy (11% vs. 30%), indicating either different interpretive models or one venue's potential mispricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.