Will Aaron Boone be out before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 27% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Out before Nov 15, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Out before Mar 24, 2027
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 24, 2027
226 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Boone be out before
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 24% probability that Aaron Boone will be removed as Yankees manager before September 1, 2026. This reflects modest concern about his job security despite the team's position mid-season. The probability is driven primarily by the Yankees' performance trajectory and any public statements from ownership regarding managerial continuity. The main catalyst for resolution will be the team's results through late August, particularly their standing in the AL East and Wild Card race, as well as any official announcements from the organization about Boone's future. Teams typically make significant managerial decisions after the season concludes, making late-August performance critical to this specific timeframe.
- ›Yankees' win-loss record and playoff positioning as of August 31, 2026
- ›Any public statements from Yankees ownership, Hal Steinbrenner, or general management about Boone's job status
- ›Team performance in August specifically, as in-season managerial changes are relatively uncommon
- ›Historical precedent showing mid-season managerial departures occur primarily during severe performance crises
- ›Contract terms and financial implications that might influence timing of any potential change
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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