SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC

Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

49%

Colorado Rapids SC

runner-up 27¢leader 49¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

27¢

St. Louis City SC

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$869

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayColorado Rapids SC: 49% (3 days, 2 points)Colorado Rapids SC: 49% on 2026-05-07St. Louis City SC: 27% (3 days, 3 points)St. Louis City SC: 27% on 2026-05-08Draw (Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC): 26% on 2026-05-08
Colorado Rapids SC49¢St. Louis City SC27¢Draw (Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC)26¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Colorado Rapids will defeat St. Louis City in their upcoming match. The Rapids are favored at 46%, while St. Louis City is valued at 28%, with draws priced at 25%. Historically recent form, home-field advantage, injury status, and head-to-head records typically influence MLS match outcomes. The fixture itself will determine the result definitively, resolving all uncertainty around tactical execution and in-game performance. Currently, Colorado holds a marginal edge in the prediction market, though the three-way outcome structure means no single result is heavily favored. The modest volume and tight pricing suggest limited market participation at this stage.

  • Colorado Rapids' recent league position and win-loss record relative to St. Louis City's current standings
  • Home vs. away designation and how venue advantage historically impacts outcomes between these two teams
  • Head-to-head matchup history between Colorado and St. Louis, including goals scored and defensive records in prior meetings
  • Key player availability, injuries, or suspensions that affect either team's lineup depth or tactical options
  • Pre-match momentum indicators such as streaks, goals conceded/scored in the last 5 games, and team discipline metrics

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.