Columbus Crew vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
4 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
389 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Nithya Raman” vs “Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Nithya Raman
Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMKBAS
Will Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMSPRA
Cluster 2
Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Cluster 3
Will Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
What moved the line
- May 7Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt↑28pp21→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass↓18pp51→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt↓16pp32→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt↑14pp49→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt↓10pp16→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.