Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$97
1 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals
Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals?: Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals
KXBRASILEIROSPREAD-26MAY10MIRCHA-MIR1
Analysis
This market estimates a 22% chance that Mirassol defeats their opponent by more than one goal. Mirassol's relatively low probability reflects typical statistical distributions for lopsided wins—most matches end in draws or single-goal margins. The current level suggests market participants view Mirassol as unlikely to dominate, though not impossibly so. Key drivers include Mirassol's recent form, defensive capabilities of their opponent, and historical head-to-head records. The outcome will be determined when their scheduled match concludes, with resolution depending on final match score. Similar contracts across other teams (Arsenal at 33%, Colorado at 41%) provide context: double-digit goal margins occur in roughly one-fifth to two-fifths of matchups depending on relative team strength.
- ›Mirassol's recent goal-scoring efficiency and conversion rate in their last 5-10 matches
- ›Current defensive strength and clean-sheet record of the opposing team
- ›Historical frequency of 2+ goal victory margins in this league or competition
- ›Head-to-head results between these specific teams in recent seasons
- ›Injury or personnel status that could affect attacking depth or defensive stability
What moved the line
- May 7Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals↑30pp5→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (35% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.