CS Cienciano vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos - More Markets: CD Comerciantes Unidos (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 10 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
10 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets” vs “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xcdb8fe…44e4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5)
0x4a1204…15f7
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4a9cea…f5f4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x57efa3…fc4b
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc7befb…da6f
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x376086…86e3
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)
0x9c8878…2195
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)
0xfe442e…dd9c
Cluster 2
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 3
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Analysis
A 31% probability indicates that CD Comerciantes Unidos is favored to lose by more than 1.5 goals to CS Cienciano in their upcoming match. This reflects expectations that Cienciano will win by a decisive margin. The current level reflects the relative strength of the two teams in Peru's football league and recent form. The main factor driving this probability is the teams' recent performance records and head-to-head history. The match itself—scheduled for a specific date in the 2026 season—is the primary catalyst that will resolve this market, as the final score will determine whether Comerciantes Unidos covers the 1.5-goal spread. Changes in team injuries, lineup changes, or shifts in league standings before kickoff could move this probability materially.
- ›CS Cienciano's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to CD Comerciantes Unidos
- ›Head-to-head historical results between the two teams, including venue (home/away) performance
- ›Current league standings and points differential that indicate relative competitive strength
- ›Injury reports or lineup changes for either team announced before match day
- ›Weather conditions or other field factors that could affect play style and scoring patterns
What moved the line
- May 6Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5)↑36pp20→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓19pp54→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CS Cienciano (-1.5)↓14pp22→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.