Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ecuador
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecua
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$960
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador
Analysis
This probability reflects the odds that Côte d'Ivoire will outperform Ecuador in an upcoming World Cup match. The significant gap between Kalshi (11%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests traders disagree on how to weight Côte d'Ivoire's chances. Several unrelated contracts trading on Polymarket involve Côte d'Ivoire—including one on Trump administration immigration policy—which may be inflating the broader market estimate through contract confusion or cross-venue information leakage. Ecuador's strong historical World Cup participation and recent qualifying performance contrast with Côte d'Ivoire's less consistent international record. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, though the current probability gap indicates traders are uncertain whether they're pricing similar events or have genuinely divergent assessments of relative team strength.
- ›Kalshi's Trump immigration contract (11¢) may be conflating an unrelated policy question with football performance
- ›Ecuador finished in World Cup qualifying ahead of most CONMEBOL competitors; Côte d'Ivoire's recent CAF qualifying record is less consistent
- ›Polymarket shows Ecuador winning 78¢ in a separate Ecuador vs. Curaçao matchup, suggesting confidence in Ecuadorian strength at this tournament
- ›Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire contracts show Côte d'Ivoire at 12¢ to win outright, implying low baseline expectations for the team
- ›The 26-percentage-point gap between exchanges suggests either information asymmetry, different trader sophistication, or contract design differences affecting price discovery
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.