Daegu Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 83% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Choo Kyung-ho
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Kim Boo-kyum
Spread
65pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$22K
liquid
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
6 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Daegu Mayoral Election Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates traders estimate an 82% chance that Choo Kyung-ho wins the Daegu mayoral election. Daegu is South Korea's third-largest city, and mayoral races carry significance for local governance and sometimes reflect broader political sentiment. The current pricing reflects Choo's apparent polling lead and organizational strength relative to rival Kim Boo-kyum. Movement in this probability would likely follow changes in public polling data, endorsements from party leadership, or developments in local issues affecting voter priorities. The resolution date depends on when Daegu holds its next mayoral election; if one is scheduled soon, market prices should converge toward the actual outcome as election day approaches. Liquidity remains moderate, with combined daily volume around $14,000 across both contracts.
- ›Choo Kyung-ho's contract trades at 83 cents versus Kim Boo-kyum's 18 cents, reflecting a significant gap in perceived viability rather than near-consensus
- ›Trading volume and bid-ask spreads suggest limited but active participation, making prices susceptible to revision if new polling or campaign developments emerge
- ›The 82% probability implies roughly 1-in-5 odds the runner-up wins, a non-negligible outcome dependent on potential campaign events or shifts in voter preference
- ›Resolution depends entirely on the scheduled election date; unclear timing could explain why this market has not yet compressed toward extremes
- ›Polymarket's two-contract structure means price movements reflect direct trader belief rather than aggregate forecasting models
What moved the line
- May 21Kim Boo-kyum↓5pp28→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Kim Boo-kyum↓4pp23→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Choo Kyung-ho↑4pp79→83¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Choo Kyung-ho↑3pp75→78¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Choo Kyung-ho↑3pp78→81¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (83% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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