Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?
Leader sits at 94% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑$160B
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
↑$170B
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$61
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$160B
0x13e71b…b395
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$200B
0x892c52…fcf0
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$170B
0xde6a54…0f9a
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$135B
0xc6d79b…e160
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$130B
0x806aba…6ab1
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$225B
0x7f4ebe…292f
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$250B
0x741608…ad10
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$300B
0x589df5…f07f
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$140B
0x4975dc…37b8
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180B
0x3288c9…b7af
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$125B
0x1645e8…ca2c
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$190B
0x0d2898…0a0f
Analysis
This market reflects a 94% probability that Databricks will reach a $160 billion valuation by year-end 2026, with only a 54% probability assigned to the higher $180 billion threshold. The high confidence in the $160B outcome suggests traders believe the company's current trajectory—driven by AI infrastructure adoption and enterprise data platform demand—makes modest valuation growth likely over the remaining six months. However, the sharp drop-off at $180B indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether Databricks can achieve more aggressive appreciation. Key drivers include the company's funding activity, revenue growth rate, competitive positioning in the generative AI space, and broader venture capital market conditions. Any major funding round, significant customer wins, or shifts in AI infrastructure spending would likely move these probabilities, while market downturns or slower enterprise adoption could pressure valuations downward.
- ›Databricks' current pre-money valuation and most recent funding round terms establish the baseline for calculating probability of each threshold
- ›Enterprise adoption rates for Databricks' lakehouse platform directly correlate with revenue trajectory, which anchors valuation multiples
- ›Competitive dynamics with Snowflake, Palantir, and open-source alternatives affect market share assumptions underlying higher valuation scenarios
- ›Venture capital and late-stage funding appetite for AI infrastructure companies influences investor willingness to assign premium valuations
- ›Six-month timeline to December 31, 2026 limits dependency on multi-year product roadmap execution versus near-term fundraising or acquisition activity
What moved the line
- Jun 17↓$135B↑14pp39→53¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18↑$180B↑13pp62→75¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17↑$180B↓9pp71→62¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18↓$125B↓8pp45→37¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑$180B↑8pp63→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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