Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $2.00
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Above $4.00
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
136 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in August 2026?: Above $6.00
KXB200MS-26AUG-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in September 2026?: Above $5.00
KXB200MS-26SEP-5.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in November 2026?: Above $4.00
KXB200MS-26NOV-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in December 2026?: Above $4.00
KXB200MS-26DEC-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.00 in July 2027?: Above $3.00
KXB200MS-27JUL-3.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $9.00 in August 2027?: Above $9.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-9.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $8.50 in August 2027?: Above $8.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-8.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $8.00 in August 2027?: Above $8.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-8.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $7.50 in August 2027?: Above $7.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-7.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $7.00 in August 2027?: Above $7.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-7.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.50 in August 2027?: Above $6.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-6.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in August 2027?: Above $6.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-6.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.50 in August 2027?: Above $5.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-5.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in August 2027?: Above $5.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-5.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2027?: Above $4.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-4.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in August 2027?: Above $4.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-4.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.50 in August 2027?: Above $3.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-3.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $3.00 in August 2027?: Above $3.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-3.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $2.50 in August 2027?: Above $2.50
KXB200MS-27AUG-2.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $2.00 in August 2027?: Above $2.00
KXB200MS-27AUG-2.000
Analysis
This contracts markets assesses whether NVIDIA's B200 accelerator will trade at an average monthly price above $4.50 in August 2026, currently priced at 65% probability. The B200, NVIDIA's latest flagship compute chip, represents a significant upgrade to their GPU lineup, and its pricing trajectory reflects broader dynamics in AI accelerator demand and supply constraints. Market participants are pricing in a moderately high likelihood of above-$4.50 pricing for August, which sits between the more heavily-trafficked July threshold ($4.00 at 66% on Kalshi) and longer-dated expectations for higher prices. The main factors influencing this estimate are current spot-market pricing in June 2026, near-term supply-demand balance as production ramps, and whether competitive pressure from alternative accelerators emerges. Resolution depends on reported average monthly pricing data for the B200 in August; spot pricing trajectories through July will provide early signals about the August outcome.
- ›Current spot pricing for B200 in June 2026 and trend momentum into July—prices near or above $4.50 already suggest higher probability; sustained pricing below $4.00 would lower it
- ›Production volume and allocation constraints throughout Q3 2026—tight supply typically supports higher marginal pricing; expanded inventory could exert downward pressure
- ›Competitive GPU launch activity between July and August, particularly from AMD or other vendors, could disrupt B200's pricing premium
- ›Data center procurement patterns and customer inventory levels—heavy demand with tight budgets supports price maintenance; demand weakness or bulk contract deals at discounts could lower average pricing
- ›NVIDIA's official list pricing strategy and any announced price adjustments for the B200 during the June-August window
What moved the line
- Aug 13Above $3.00↓38pp81→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above $2.50↑17pp68→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 13Above $3.00↑16pp58→74¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above $3.00↑14pp43→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 13Above $4.00↓12pp68→56¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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