Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Leader sits at 88% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑$900B
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
↑$1.0T
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.5T
0x475c99…a0fb
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$1.0T
0x6f107a…86c7
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$3.0T
0x62b614…1412
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0T
0x0ed3f0…9cda
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$900B
0x6cfe7a…6242
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$1.75T
0xb202db…100e
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$4.0T
0x192617…fa2f
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$1.25T
0x0a0fb7…c31a
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$1.5T
0xc71dbe…1d45
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$500B
0x042a71…3f14
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$800B
0x3ae127…570c
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$600B
0xf19307…0f91
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$700B
0x782472…9af1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$5.0T
0xedbfee…71e3
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↓$750B
0xf57c3d…4de4
Analysis
This market estimates an 88% probability that OpenAI's valuation will exceed $900 billion by year-end 2026. The high confidence reflects recent funding rounds and AI industry momentum, though the outcome depends heavily on OpenAI's reported financial metrics, user adoption figures, and broader venture capital conditions over the next six months. Uncertainty around whether the company pursues additional funding, achieves specific revenue milestones, or faces regulatory headwinds could shift the probability materially. The most immediate catalyst will likely be OpenAI's next reported financial results or any announced funding event, which would provide concrete valuation data to resolve market estimates.
- ›OpenAI's actual reported revenue and profitability metrics for H1 2026, which directly inform investor valuations in subsequent funding rounds
- ›Market appetite for AI infrastructure investment and venture capital deployment levels through December 2026, which determines available capital for late-stage rounds
- ›Regulatory developments affecting large AI labs, including any U.S. or international restrictions that could impact perceived company value
- ›Competitive pressures from other AI labs (Anthropic, Google DeepMind, etc.) and whether OpenAI maintains pricing power and market share assumptions
- ›Timeline and terms of any announced funding round by OpenAI before year-end, which would establish formal valuation milestones
Recently closed in ai tech
- In which month will SpaceX IPOlast 97% · 2d
- How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 90-100Blast 97% · 2d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)last 97% · 2d
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQlast 96% · 2d
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.6Tlast 89% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
Anthropic Leads the AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Looms
The market for the best AI model by end of June has solidified around Anthropic (86¢), while contracts on a GPT-5.6 release before July 31 are trading at 97%. This points to a major inflection point in the AI wars, with traders betting on a direct competitive response from Anthropic.
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears
Anthropic's Claude is now a 92¢ favorite to be the best AI model at end of June, while GPT-5.6 release odds jumped 7¢ to 24% for a June 15 launch. The AI benchmark leaderboard is shifting rapidly.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.