Next OpenAI Model
Leader sits at 83% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Arena Debut?: 1450+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
Arena Debut?: 1470+
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$32
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?: 1450+
0xbbed59…8fe2
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?: 1470+
0xb6d067…0f72
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' expectation that OpenAI will release a new model with Arena debut performance at or above 1450 by a specified date. The 85% price suggests high confidence in a near-term release, likely driven by OpenAI's historical cadence of major model releases and recent competitive pressure from other labs. The market distinguishes between two capability thresholds (1450+ vs 1470+), with the higher bar trading 15 points lower, indicating some uncertainty about exact performance tier. Resolution hinges on when OpenAI announces and publicly benchmarks its next model. If no release occurs within the contract timeframe, the probability would decline; conversely, early announcements with strong Arena results would reinforce the current high probability. The relatively tight spread between the two contracts suggests the market views both outcomes as plausible but expects the lower threshold to be crossed if any model is released.
- ›OpenAI's typical release schedule shows major models roughly 12-18 months apart; a release by mid-2026 would align with expected timing from their GPT-4 era
- ›Arena benchmark scores are publicly measured and verifiable; the difference between 1450 and 1470 performance tiers reflects discrete technical capability gaps
- ›24-hour volume of $122 on the 1450+ contract indicates ongoing market interest, while $0 volume on the 1470+ contract suggests less active trading on the higher threshold
- ›The 15-point probability gap between contracts (85% vs 70%) reveals market uncertainty about whether released capabilities will meet the higher bar, not whether a model will launch
- ›No scheduled OpenAI event date is publicly announced as of the knowledge cutoff, making the resolution timeline itself a source of contract uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 14Arena Debut?: 1470+↑9pp48→57¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Arena Debut?: 1470+↑6pp54→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12Arena Debut?: 1470+↓3pp49→46¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Arena Debut?: 1470+↓3pp57→54¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Caplast 48% · 0d
- What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026last 36% · 0d
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0Tlast 92% · 0d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 0d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$145Blast 71% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (83% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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