Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11
15 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
446 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Raymond James
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-RJFX
Cluster 2
Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Stifel Financial
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-SFX
Cluster 3
Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-EVRX
Cluster 4
Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-LAZX
Cluster 5
Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-CVPXX
Cluster 6
Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ALLCX
Cluster 7
Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Qatalyst Partners
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-QATAX
Cluster 8
Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MCX
Cluster 9
Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: PJT Partners
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PJTX
Cluster 10
Will Perella Weinberg Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Cluster 11
Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Rothschild & Co
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ROTHX
Cluster 12
Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Greenhill & Co
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-GHLX
Cluster 13
Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Piper Sandler
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PIPRX
Cluster 14
Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: William Blair
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-WBLAX
Cluster 15
Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Needham & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-NEEDX
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Lazard, a major financial advisory firm, will serve as the lead investment bank for OpenAI's initial public offering before January 1, 2028. The 16% figure sits between competing firms tracked separately on these contracts, with Raymond James priced higher at 42% and most others significantly lower. The outcome depends on OpenAI's timeline for going public—currently uncertain given the company's private funding rounds—and whether Lazard wins the mandate against other banking competitors. No specific IPO date has been announced. The main drivers are OpenAI's internal decision to pursue public markets and its choice of banking partners, both of which could shift substantially based on market conditions, regulatory developments, or the company's financial performance over the next 15 months.
- ›OpenAI has not publicly committed to an IPO timeline, making any specific banker's chances contingent on the company first deciding to go public
- ›Lazard's 16% probability is lower than Raymond James (42%) and Allen & Company (29%), suggesting market participants view it as less likely to win the mandate if an IPO occurs
- ›The 16-month window to January 1, 2028 is relatively short for IPO preparation; typical processes take 6-12 months after mandate selection
- ›Competitive positioning among investment banks for tech IPO mandates depends on existing relationships, market standing, and pitch performance, all subject to change
- ›No scheduled announcements or data releases directly tied to Lazard's selection have been publicly announced
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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