Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3
15 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
572 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-CVPXX
Cluster 2
Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ALLCX
Cluster 3
Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-EVRX
Cluster 4
Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Greenhill & Co
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-GHLX
Cluster 5
Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-LAZX
Cluster 6
Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MCX
Cluster 7
Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Needham & Company
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-NEEDX
Cluster 8
Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Piper Sandler
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PIPRX
Cluster 9
Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: PJT Partners
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PJTX
Cluster 10
Will Perella Weinberg Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Cluster 11
Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Qatalyst Partners
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-QATAX
Cluster 12
Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Raymond James
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-RJFX
Cluster 13
Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Rothschild & Co
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ROTHX
Cluster 14
Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: Stifel Financial
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-SFX
Cluster 15
Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028
Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028?: William Blair
KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-WBLAX
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Lazard will serve as the lead investment banker for OpenAI's initial public offering before January 1, 2028. Currently priced at 27%, it sits between competitors like Stifel Financial (57%) and Centerview (15%), suggesting moderate confidence in Lazard's candidacy. The level depends on two main variables: whether OpenAI decides to go public at all within the timeframe, and which firm the company selects as lead advisor if an IPO occurs. Lazard's 27% price is driven by its established position in major tech transactions, though competitors command higher implied probabilities, indicating market uncertainty about whether Lazard would be chosen versus larger rivals. The primary catalyst for resolution is OpenAI's formal announcement of IPO plans and its selection of underwriters, which could occur at any time but faces no scheduled deadline.
- ›Lazard's historical track record managing billion-dollar technology and media transactions compared to competing banks' recent relevant deals
- ›OpenAI's current ownership structure and whether existing stakeholders (Microsoft, Thrive Capital, others) would influence underwriter selection
- ›The relative pricing of competing underwriter contracts suggests market assigns 57% probability to Stifel, 45% to Raymond James, and 37% to Allen & Company, indicating distributed expectations
- ›No confirmed IPO timeline or underwriter selection announcement has been made as of June 2026, leaving the 18-month resolution window highly uncertain
- ›Lazard's smaller relative probability (27%) versus higher-priced competitors could reflect either lower market confidence or asymmetric information about the company's banking relationships
What moved the line
- Jun 4Allen & Company↑18pp19→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Rothschild & Co↑16pp18→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Perella Weinberg Partners↓13pp29→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Raymond James↑11pp33→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Greenhill & Co↑9pp6→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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