Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03
Leader sits at 97% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $2.50
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above $3.00
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 18, 2026
37 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21?: Above $4.50
KXH200WS-26AUG21-4.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $6.00
KXH200WS-26AUG28-6.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $4.50
KXH200WS-26AUG28-4.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21?: Above $4.00
KXH200WS-26AUG21-4.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21?: Above $5.50
KXH200WS-26AUG21-5.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $2.50
KXH200WS-26AUG28-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $6.00
KXH200WS-26SEP04-6.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Sep 11?: Above $6.00
KXH200WS-26SEP11-6.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Sep 11?: Above $2.50
KXH200WS-26SEP11-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $6.5 at 4 PM ET on Sep 04?: Above $6.50
KXH200WS-26SEP04-6.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $6.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $6.50
KXH200WS-26AUG28-6.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $5.50
KXH200WS-26AUG28-5.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21?: Above $5.00
KXH200WS-26AUG21-5.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $3.50
KXH200WS-26AUG28-3.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28?: Above $3.00
KXH200WS-26AUG28-3.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21?: Above $3.50
KXH200WS-26AUG21-3.500
Analysis
This contract estimates a 68% probability that NVIDIA H200 compute-per-hour pricing will exceed $3.00 by July 3, 2026. The market reflects uncertainty around both near-term pricing strategy and actual H200 availability and demand. Cloud providers typically adjust GPU rental rates based on supply constraints, manufacturing delays, and competitive pressure from alternative accelerators. The contract resolves in about two weeks, leaving limited time for major shifts unless NVIDIA announces significant price changes, supply disruptions materialize, or competing offerings reshape the rental market. Current low trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi) suggests sparse market participants, so prices may not reflect full information about cloud provider procurement plans or H200 deployment timelines.
- ›Current H200 spot-market rental rates and their relationship to the $3.00 threshold as of mid-June 2026
- ›NVIDIA's official pricing communications or cloud provider rate cards published before July 3
- ›Supply availability of H200 chips relative to demand, which directly influences rental pricing pressure
- ›Competitive pricing from alternative accelerators (A100, H100, or other offerings) that may anchor H200 rates
- ›Trading volume and contract prices on longer-dated H200 pricing contracts (July 10, July 17) that reveal market expectations for sustained pricing levels
What moved the line
- Aug 8Above $3.50↑14pp71→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Above $5.00↓13pp40→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above $4.50↑11pp44→55¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above $4.00↑9pp68→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Above $6.00↓9pp21→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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