Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03
Leader sits at 85% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $2.50
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Above $2.50
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $2.50
KXH200WS-26JUL03-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $3.00
KXH200WS-26JUL17-3.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.50
KXH200WS-26JUL17-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $5.50
KXH200WS-26JUL10-5.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $5.00
KXH200WS-26JUL10-5.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $4.50
KXH200WS-26JUL10-4.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $4.00
KXH200WS-26JUL10-4.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.50
KXH200WS-26JUL10-3.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.00
KXH200WS-26JUL10-3.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $2.50
KXH200WS-26JUL10-2.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $5.00
KXH200WS-26JUL03-5.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $4.50
KXH200WS-26JUL03-4.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $4.00
KXH200WS-26JUL03-4.000
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $3.50
KXH200WS-26JUL03-3.500
Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $3.00
KXH200WS-26JUL03-3.000
Analysis
This contract estimates a 68% probability that NVIDIA H200 compute-per-hour pricing will exceed $3.00 by July 3, 2026. The market reflects uncertainty around both near-term pricing strategy and actual H200 availability and demand. Cloud providers typically adjust GPU rental rates based on supply constraints, manufacturing delays, and competitive pressure from alternative accelerators. The contract resolves in about two weeks, leaving limited time for major shifts unless NVIDIA announces significant price changes, supply disruptions materialize, or competing offerings reshape the rental market. Current low trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi) suggests sparse market participants, so prices may not reflect full information about cloud provider procurement plans or H200 deployment timelines.
- ›Current H200 spot-market rental rates and their relationship to the $3.00 threshold as of mid-June 2026
- ›NVIDIA's official pricing communications or cloud provider rate cards published before July 3
- ›Supply availability of H200 chips relative to demand, which directly influences rental pricing pressure
- ›Competitive pricing from alternative accelerators (A100, H100, or other offerings) that may anchor H200 rates
- ›Trading volume and contract prices on longer-dated H200 pricing contracts (July 10, July 17) that reveal market expectations for sustained pricing levels
Recently closed in ai tech
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 27% · 1d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25Tlast 21% · 1d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $228last 31% · 1d
- What will OpenAI's public ticker be?: $OAIlast 61% · 1d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+last 37% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
Anthropic Leads the AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Looms
The market for the best AI model by end of June has solidified around Anthropic (86¢), while contracts on a GPT-5.6 release before July 31 are trading at 97%. This points to a major inflection point in the AI wars, with traders betting on a direct competitive response from Anthropic.
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears
Anthropic's Claude is now a 92¢ favorite to be the best AI model at end of June, while GPT-5.6 release odds jumped 7¢ to 24% for a June 15 launch. The AI benchmark leaderboard is shifting rapidly.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.