"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70-80m
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$44K
1 contracts
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70-80m
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70-80m
0xa5b00f…58b9
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' will earn between $70-80 million during its opening weekend in the U.S. The 96% probability suggests strong consensus around this specific range. The high confidence is likely driven by the film's established franchise recognition, the return of lead actor Meryl Streep, and comparable box office performance of recent legacy sequels aimed at adult audiences. However, market participants are slightly more bullish on a $80-90 million opening, as evidenced by the $80-90m contract trading at 7¢ versus 93¢ for the $70-80m range, indicating marginal uncertainty about whether the film exceeds the upper bound. The opening weekend will resolve on the film's release date, after which actual box office figures from major tracking services will determine the outcome. Key variables include final pre-release marketing impact, audience reception metrics, and competitive releases during the same period.
- ›The $80-90m contract is trading at 7 cents while the $70-80m contract is at 93 cents, indicating the market assigns 7% probability to a stronger opening above $80m
- ›Comparable recent adult-skewing sequels and franchise reboots typically open in the $50-90m range, providing historical benchmarks
- ›The film's Rotten Tomatoes score expectations (97% for 'above 75') suggest anticipated critical reception could influence box office performance
- ›Opening weekend box office will be definitively resolved by tracking data released by studios and box office reporting services within 2-3 days of release
- ›Competition from other wide releases during the same weekend period and broader market conditions could materially shift audience attendance patterns
What moved the line
- May 370-80m↑4pp89→93¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.