Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jun 29, 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 13, 2026
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Before Jul 6, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$64K
liquid
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
13 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Ju
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jun 15, 2026?: Before Jun 15, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUN15
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jun 20, 2026?: Before Jun 20, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUN20
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jun 22, 2026?: Before Jun 22, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUN22
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jun 29, 2026?: Before Jun 29, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUN29
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 6, 2026?: Before Jul 6, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUL06
Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026
KXDJTATTACKNETANYAHU-26JUN-26JUL13
Analysis
This predicts a 91% chance that Donald Trump will publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu between now (June 2) and June 29, 2026. The high probability reflects Trump's history of unpredictable public statements on Middle East policy and recent tensions in US-Israel relations. Markets show declining odds for earlier resolution windows (11% by June 8), suggesting traders expect any criticism, if it occurs, to come later in the month. The main driver is Trump's track record of public comments on Israeli leadership, while the primary uncertainty is whether a specific trigger event—such as a policy disagreement, military escalation, or diplomatic incident—will prompt public criticism within the timeframe. June 22 represents the practical deadline before month-end, with current pricing at 31 cents indicating meaningful but minority probability of criticism by that date.
- ›Trump has a documented history of public criticism of Israeli leadership and current government figures across multiple administrations
- ›Recent US-Israel policy disagreements on Gaza humanitarian aid, settlement expansion, or military operations could provoke public statements
- ›The 27-day window provides substantial opportunity for a trigger event; earlier contract prices (11% by June 8) suggest most traders expect criticism later rather than sooner if it occurs
- ›Netanyahu and Trump have had both cooperative and adversarial public relations, making either outcome plausible
- ›No specific scheduled diplomatic event or deadline in late June has been identified as a catalyzing factor in current market pricing
What moved the line
- Jun 14Before Jun 22, 2026↑56pp9→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Before Jun 20, 2026↑52pp6→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Before Jun 15, 2026↑51pp3→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Before Jul 6, 2026↑45pp19→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Before Jun 29, 2026↑42pp17→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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