3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 20, 2029 · 969d

Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

25%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

25%

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$233

3 contracts

Closes

Jan 20, 2029

969 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 202933¢$0 Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 202825¢$0 Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 202718¢$233

30-day trend

Aggregate of 3 contracts · 8d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan

2 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028

KXDST-27JAN01-28

25¢+6pp$0K→

Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029

KXDST-27JAN01-29

33¢−1pp$0K→

Cluster 2

Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027

1 contract$233

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027

KXDST-27JAN01

18¢±0$233K→

Analysis

The 19% probability reflects low near-term expectations for federal legislation mandating year-round Daylight Saving Time by early 2028. The current odds suggest market participants view passage as unlikely within this 20-month window, despite recurring legislative interest. Support for permanent DST has existed across multiple Congressional sessions, but bills have consistently stalled due to disagreement over whether to lock in standard time or daylight time, and competing interests from agriculture, broadcast media, and health advocates. The main factors that could shift this probability are a sudden shift in congressional priorities or a high-profile push by a new administration. The period immediately following any 2026 midterm elections and the first 100 days of potential 2028 presidential administration represent key moments when legislative calendar space might open.

›Previous federal DST legislation (Energy Policy Act of 2005) required 6+ years of development before passage, establishing a slow historical baseline
›Current Congressional gridlock and competing state-level time zone experiments reduce federal legislative bandwidth
›Major stakeholder opposition from agricultural and broadcast sectors has blocked bills in prior sessions despite bipartisan language
›No scheduled federal vote or committee markup is currently calendared for this issue as of May 2026
›The 2028 presidential election cycle typically constrains legislative movement on non-emergency issues in the latter half of 2027

What moved the line

May 23Before Jan 20, 2029↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
May 26Before Jan 1, 2028↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
May 26Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
May 24Before Jan 20, 2029↑3pp30→33¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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