State of the economy at the end of 2026
Leader sits at 33% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stagflation
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Overheating
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
249 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
State of the economy at the end of 2026
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects whether economic conditions in the United States will meet specific benchmarks by end-of-year 2026. The current level suggests markets view a moderate-to-low likelihood of the specified economic outcome, based on recent trading activity weighted toward flight cancellations and political developments. Key drivers of this assessment include near-term transportation disruptions—notably high cancellation rates in early May—and midterm political signals like Senate endorsements that often correlate with economic sentiment. The probability will likely shift based on monthly economic data releases, labor reports, and any systemic disruptions to travel or commerce through November 2026. Uncertainty centers on whether current economic headwinds will persist, stabilize, or intensify over the remainder of the year.
- ›Flight cancellations for the week ending May 8, 2026 are priced at 84% probability above 1600 but only 65% above 2100, suggesting moderate operational stress in transportation
- ›Political activity around the Nebraska Senate race (Dan Osborn/Bernie Sanders endorsement at 44%) may indicate broader economic discontent or activism levels
- ›The probability has remained stable around 35% despite near-term data, suggesting traders view current conditions as neither dramatically improving nor worsening
- ›Monthly employment reports, inflation data, and GDP revisions through December 2026 will be primary drivers of probability shifts
- ›No single resolution date is specified, indicating this aggregates expectations across multiple concurrent economic metrics rather than one discrete event
What moved the line
- May 2Stagflation↑4pp34→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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