Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pogon Szczecin win the Ekstraklasa
Will Pogon Szczecin win the Ekstraklasa?: Pogon Szczecin
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-PSZ
Cluster 2
Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa
Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa?: Zaglebie Lubin
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-ZAG
Cluster 3
Will Lech Poznan win the Ekstraklasa
Will Lech Poznan win the Ekstraklasa?: Lech Poznan
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-LPO
Cluster 4
Will Jagiellonia win the Ekstraklasa
Will Jagiellonia win the Ekstraklasa?: Jagiellonia
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-JAG
Cluster 5
Will Wisla Plock win the Ekstraklasa
Will Wisla Plock win the Ekstraklasa?: Wisla Plock
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-PLO
Cluster 6
Will Radomiak Radom win the Ekstraklasa
Will Radomiak Radom win the Ekstraklasa?: Radomiak Radom
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-RAD
Cluster 7
Will Legia Warszawa win the Ekstraklasa
Will Legia Warszawa win the Ekstraklasa?: Legia Warszawa
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-LEG
Cluster 8
Will Gornik Zabrze win the Ekstraklasa
Will Gornik Zabrze win the Ekstraklasa?: Gornik Zabrze
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-GOR
Cluster 9
Will Korona Kielce win the Ekstraklasa
Will Korona Kielce win the Ekstraklasa?: Korona Kielce
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-KOR
Cluster 10
Will Czestochowa win the Ekstraklasa
Will Czestochowa win the Ekstraklasa?: Czestochowa
KXEKSTRAKLASA-26-CZE
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Zaglebie Lubin finishes first in Poland's top football division during the 2026 season. At 16%, the probability reflects the team's historical performance and current competitive position relative to stronger Polish clubs. The main drivers of this probability are Zaglebie's recent league standings, squad composition, and injury status compared to rivals like Legia Warsaw and Cracovia. The probability will shift substantially based on performance in matches from May through the season's conclusion, with playoff or championship outcomes in late 2026 providing the final resolution. Market participants are pricing in moderate odds that account for the competitive depth of the Ekstraklasa while acknowledging Zaglebie's position as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite.
- ›Zaglebie's current league position as of May 2026 and point differential versus leading clubs
- ›Squad depth and key player availability, particularly in defensive and attacking positions
- ›Head-to-head record and remaining fixtures against primary title contenders
- ›Historical performance patterns: Zaglebie has not won the Ekstraklasa since 1991
- ›Coaching staff experience and tactical adjustments made during the season
What moved the line
- May 6Lech Poznan↑28pp28→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Lech Poznan↑17pp56→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Lech Poznan↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Gornik Zabrze↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Gornik Zabrze↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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