Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$106
15 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner” vs “Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner?: Zaglebie Lubin
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY09GORZAG-ZAG
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner?: Tie
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY09GORZAG-TIE
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner?: Gornik Zabrze
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY09GORZAG-GOR
Cluster 2
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Winner
Cluster 3
Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin Winner
Cluster 4
Gliwice vs Katowice Winner
Cluster 5
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Cracovia Krakow
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY11CRARAD-CRA
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Tie
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY11CRARAD-TIE
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Radomiak Radom
KXEKSTRAKLASAGAME-26MAY11CRARAD-RAD
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Zaglebie Lubin will defeat Nieciecza in an upcoming match. The 17% price suggests bookmakers and traders view Zaglebie as the underdog, with stronger probability assigned to either Katowice winning or a draw based on the related contracts. The probability level is driven by relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history between these Polish Ekstraklasa opponents. Key uncertainty stems from team lineup changes, injuries to key players, and home-field advantage dynamics. The market will resolve once the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current trading volume on this specific matchup is minimal ($0 in the past 24 hours), suggesting limited market conviction and the possibility that the probability reflects sparse pricing data rather than robust consensus.
- ›Zaglebie Lubin's recent league position and points total compared to Nieciecza's current standing in the Polish Ekstraklasa
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including wins, losses, and goal differential
- ›Team news including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes announced before match day
- ›Home vs. away status of each team, as one team's home-field advantage typically affects win probability
- ›Trading volume remains negligible on this specific contract, indicating the 17% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than strong analytical consensus
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.